Crypto 20% Annual Return (CAGR) Compounding

Supercom runs a trend overlay on a core position in major digital assets by market capitalisation, rebalanced quarterly, on its own capital. The overlay sets the exposure: long when BTC is in an uptrend, net short when it is not. The strategy targets a 20% net annual return (CAGR), with all returns reinvested.
•No narratives. No momentum chasing.
•Built for the long term.

Disciplined risk management built into every step
Structured capital allocation built for the long term
How It Works Contact Us
Performance

Patience is the edge.

Reinvested returns don't grow linearly — they accelerate. Each year you earn returns on your returns. The gap widens every single year.

At a Glance
Founded
2022
Domicile
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Strategy
Core position + long/short trend overlay
Account type
Own account
Asset class
Cryptocurrencies
Results
What the trend overlay adds
Gross · 1 Jan 2022 – 30 Sep 2026
CAGR
21.6%
Supercom
21.6%
BTC
13.2%
Core only
11.9%
+8.4 pp vs BTC
Total return
+153%
Supercom
+153.3%
BTC
+80.4%
Core only
+70.4%
1.9× the return of BTC
Max drawdown
−16.1%
Supercom
−16.1%
BTC
−64.3%
Core only
−43.3%
4.0× lower drawdown
2022
+5.8%
Supercom
+5.8%
BTC
−64.3%
Core only
−43.3%
+70.1 pp vs BTC
Value of $100k
$253.327
Supercom
$253.327
BTC
$180.416
Core only
$170.398
+$72.910 vs BTC
Supercom: core position + trend overlay (rule set v1). BTC: buy and hold, 100% in BTC. Core only: same coins and weights, without the trend overlay. Same period, gross.
The edge
The rule
A trend filter on BTC decides the positioning.
Signal at 30 Sep 2026
Long
Supercom holds a core position in major coins. Once a month, the strategy checks whether BTC is in an uptrend. If so, the core position stays long. If the trend turns down, the strategy switches from long to a net short position. This limits the damage of long bear markets and can earn a return in them. The trend rule is mechanical and makes no forecasts. The chart shows how the rule positioned the portfolio over the period.
Uptrend
Long
Exposed to the core coins.
Downtrend
Net short
Switches to a net short position instead of riding the fall.
BTC at month-end, coloured by the ruleLongNet short
Universe
Major coins
Signal review
Monthly, at month-end
Rebalancing
Quarterly
Entry
$100k in one go, Jan 2022
Data
Monthly closes in USD, Yahoo Finance
Costs
Gross: before fees, funding and tax
Calculated on historical monthly prices; signals on month-end. Coins in the portfolio: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL. All five were in the top 10 in January 2022. Returns are compounded; cash earns no interest.
$100k invested Jan 2022 — Supercom vs coins · 1 Jan 2022 – 30 Sep 2026
$100k invested in one go in Jan 2022, the core coins (BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL), quarterly rebalancing, BTC trend overlay (long or net short); 21.6% CAGR, max drawdown −16% (monthly data), gross of fees, funding and tax. Coin lines: $100k invested in each coin in Jan 2022 and held, in USD. Source: Yahoo Finance, cross-checked with CoinMarketCap. Chart shows month-ends, 1 Jan 2022 – 30 Sep 2026. For informational purposes only.
Analytics

Four lenses on performance.

A direct comparison with BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL — plus drawdown, volatility, stress scenarios and recovery time.

1 — Why Not Just Buy Crypto?
2022 wiped 52–94% from the core coins. Supercom returned +6%. That single year is the argument.
Supercom
2022 return
+6%
Max drawdown
−16%
BTC
2022 return
−64%
Max drawdown
−64%
ETH
2022 return
−68%
Max drawdown
−71%
XRP
2022 return
−59%
Max drawdown
−66%
BNB
2022 return
−52%
Max drawdown
−58%
SOL
2022 return
−94%
Max drawdown
−94%
Rolling 12-Month Returns, Dec 2022–Sep 2026
Supercom · BTC · ETH · XRP · BNB · SOL — return over the preceding 12 months · Logarithmic scale.
Return over the preceding 12 months at each month-end. The 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 points are calendar-year returns; Sep '26 covers Oct 2025–Sep 2026. Supercom: $100k, Jan 2022. Gross.
2 — Drawdown from Peak
How far each asset fell from its peak since Jan 2022. Lower is worse.
Drawdown at each month-end, measured from the highest value reached since 1 Jan 2022 (to 30 Sep 2026). Supercom max drawdown −16%. Gross.
3 — Drawdown Journey
Select a scenario and follow $100k through the crash, the trough and the recovery. Each asset starts at the same point; the overlay is what keeps Supercom's line close to zero.
Weekly closes in USD (month-ends included), each asset rebased to the start of the period. Supercom = rule set v1 calculation, gross.
4 — Annualised Volatility
How much each asset fluctuates, annualised from monthly returns. Supercom runs at about 29%, mostly upside: downside deviation is 14.5% and the worst month −13.4%.
Annualised volatility based on monthly returns (σ × √12), Jan 2022–Sep 2026. Downside deviation counts only negative months (same annualisation). Gross.
Benchmarks

Portfolio value, risk & returns.

Efficient frontier, annual returns, cumulative growth and asset correlation — across market cycles.

Cumulative Growth — $100.000 invested, compounded
Jan 2022 to Sep 2026
Toggle assets
Assets
$100.000 starting investment, month-end values. All figures in USD.
Final Value
Rolling 12-Month Returns
Each asset class — total return over the preceding 12 months, at each month-end
Toggle assets
Assets
Logarithmic scale. Total return over the preceding 12 months at each month-end; the 2022–2025 points are calendar-year returns, Sep 2026 covers Oct 2025–Sep 2026. All figures in USD.
Risk vs Return — Supercom against other assets
Annualised return against risk, monthly data. Supercom has the highest return of these assets; the overlay cuts BTC's max drawdown from 64% to 16%.
Period (start)
Risk measure (x-axis)
Assets
Supercom
Coins
BTC
ETH
XRP
BNB
SOL
Traditional
Global Equities
60/40
Gold
Bonds
Cash
Return/Risk scale
−
+
Poor Good
Monthly data, gross of fees, funding and tax. Annualised; 2026 YTD is cumulative. Max drawdown on month-end values. Proxies: URTH (equities), GLD (gold), AGG (bonds), BIL (cash); 60/40 = 60% equities / 40% bonds. All figures in USD.
Diversification — Asset correlation matrix
Low cross-asset correlation is the engine of risk reduction. Supercom's correlation to the coins and to traditional assets is shown below.
Assets
Supercom
Coins
BTC
ETH
XRP
BNB
SOL
Traditional
Global Equities
60/40
Gold
Bonds
Cash
Correlation scale
−1
+1
InverseNeutralPerfect
How to read

Each cell shows the Pearson correlation between two assets' monthly returns (Jan 2022–Sep 2026). The diagonal is always 1.00. Green = move together. Red = move opposite. Near-white = independent.

Supercom advantage

Supercom's correlation to the listed assets ranges from −0.03 (Gold) to 0.55 (XRP); to BTC it is 0.37. Based on 57 monthly observations.

Pearson correlations computed from monthly total returns, Jan 2022–Sep 2026. All figures in USD. Supercom correlations use the same calculation (rule set v1, gross). 57 monthly observations.

Strategy

One approach.
Compounding over time.

01 / 04
Trend-Based Exposure
Long when the trend is up, net short when it turns down. Part of the capital is held in cash.
02 / 04
Rule-Based Execution
Exposure follows a fixed rule: the BTC trend, evaluated at month-end. We don't adjust the plan because the market gets loud.
03 / 04
Market-Cap Weights
The core position holds major digital assets by market capitalisation, rebalanced quarterly. Weights follow market cap, not opinion. No emotional entries.
04 / 04
Institutional Discipline
Crypto markets run on narrative. We run on process. Every position is filtered through a risk framework built on traditional finance principles — because capital preservation is what makes compounding possible.
Risk

Six risks.
One answer.

01 / 06
Counterparty Risk
We only work with counterparties that pass our due diligence — not as a formality, but as a hard filter. Exposure is diversified, sized deliberately, and monitored continuously.
02 / 06
Custody & Wallet Risk
Assets are held in institutional-grade MPC wallets. Every transaction requires policy approval. No single point of failure, no shortcuts on security.
03 / 06
Smart Contract Risk
We don't deploy into protocols we don't understand. Every position is backed by protocol research and real-time on-chain monitoring — we know what's happening before it becomes a problem.
04 / 06
Market & Volatility Risk
Crypto moves sharply. Our answer is a rule, not a forecast: exposure follows the BTC trend and flips to net short when the trend turns down. Part of the capital is held in cash.
05 / 06
Concentration Risk
No single strategy, exchange, or wallet carries outsized weight. Concentration limits are formal, enforced, and non-negotiable — because one bad position should never define a portfolio.
06 / 06
Operational Risk
Process is infrastructure. We run defined workflows, review our systems regularly, and hold our service providers to the same standards we hold ourselves.

Let's
talk.